Awakening Note

Planning fallacy: why everything takes longer than you think

The planning fallacy is the well-documented tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future tasks, even when you know similar tasks took longer before.

You counter it by basing estimates on how long similar tasks actually took (not your optimistic guess) and by breaking work into smaller, more estimable pieces.

Awakening Note keeps tasks small and trackable, so your sense of how long things really take gets more accurate over time.

Why Awakening Note

  • ▸We underestimate time, cost, and risk of tasks
  • ▸It persists even with past evidence
  • ▸Base estimates on actual past durations
  • ▸Small tasks are easier to estimate
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FAQ

What is the planning fallacy?
The tendency to underestimate how long a task will take, even when similar past tasks took longer.
How do I avoid it?
Estimate based on how long similar tasks actually took, and break work into smaller, more estimable pieces.

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